Will Lula win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
Probability (YES)
50%
Lifetime volume
$300.8K
Resting liquidity
$0
Trades
23
Traders
8
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▶Recent trades
SidePriceSizeWhen
- YES50¢2002d
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- YES50¢13d
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- YES50¢104d
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- YES50¢47d
- YES50¢37d
- YES50¢17d
- YES40¢388d
Discussion
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About this market
Resolves YES if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is declared the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), accounting for any second-round runoff. Voting day is October 4, 2026; runoff (if any) is October 25.
How this resolves
Resolution source
Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) official result
Resolution criteria
{
"event": "brazil_2026_presidential_election",
"candidate": "lula"
}