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EconomicsCloses in 1.2 yearsbinary

Will the U.S. enter a recession in 2026?

Probability (YES)
50%
Lifetime volume
$40.0K
Resting liquidity
$0
Trades
1
Traders
0
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  • YES50¢308d

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    About this market

    Resolves YES if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares a U.S. recession that begins in any month of 2026, regardless of when the announcement is made.

    How this resolves

    Resolution source

    NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee announcement

    Resolution criteria

    {
      "event": "nber_recession_start",
      "window": [
        "2026-01-01",
        "2026-12-31"
      ]
    }