Will the U.S. pass comprehensive AI regulation in 2026?
Probability (YES)
20%
Lifetime volume
$150.4K
Resting liquidity
$0
Trades
12
Traders
5
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▶Recent trades
SidePriceSizeWhen
- YES20¢312d
- YES20¢992d
- YES20¢262d
- YES20¢92d
- YES20¢52d
- YES20¢312d
- YES20¢852d
- YES20¢402d
- YES20¢502d
- YES20¢312d
- YES20¢16d
- YES20¢16d
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About this market
Resolves YES if a federal AI regulation bill — covering training data disclosure, model risk classification, and enforcement authority — is signed into U.S. law before December 31, 2026 23:59 ET. Executive orders alone do not qualify.
How this resolves
Resolution source
congress.gov + presidential signature
Resolution criteria
{
"by": "2026-12-31T23:59:00-05:00",
"event": "us_federal_ai_law",
"scope": "comprehensive"
}