Will the U.S. pass comprehensive AI regulation in 2026?
Details
About this market
Resolves YES if a federal AI regulation bill — covering training data disclosure, model risk classification, and enforcement authority — is signed into U.S. law before December 31, 2026 23:59 ET. Executive orders alone do not qualify.
Resolution
Resolves: January 8, 2027 at 11:59 PM
congress.gov + presidential signature
▶Order book
▶Recent trades
- YES20¢3150d
- YES20¢9950d
- YES20¢2650d
- YES20¢950d
- YES20¢550d
- YES20¢3150d
- YES20¢4050d
- YES20¢8550d
- YES20¢5050d
- YES20¢3150d
- YES20¢154d
- YES20¢154d
News pulse
AIETF flows ran ~4× new BTC issuance in May with spot demand concentrated in the $98–110K band. Long-term holder supply hit a fresh all-time high, while macro tape stayed quiet — Fed kept its patient-on-cuts framing and Treasury yields drifted lower. Net read: bid is structural, but no near-term catalyst pulls price toward $200K without a vol expansion event.
Market sentiment
184 signals · 24h- Trade flow68 · 60%
- Posts58 · 20%
- News54 · 20%
Discussion8
- Maya R.✓@macroflow·14mYES30¢
ETF inflows ran 4× BTC issuance through May. Even if half of that pace holds into Q4, supply shock alone gets you north of 180K. 200K isn't a stretch — it's a floor.
47- Devin Q.@spotbias·9m
Flows trail price by ~2 weeks. We could absolutely round-trip the whole year.
12 - Maya R.@macroflow·6m
Sure, but the bid is structurally different now. RIAs aren't fast money.
18
- Lena S.@lenas·1h
Reminder to size positions. Don't go all-in on a binary that resolves in 7 months.
56 - Jordan T.@fadetheherd·55mYES32¢
Everyone in this thread is anchored to the spot price. The question is the right tail probability. Even a 50% chance of one parabolic month gets you there.
31 - Rui M.✓@ondechain·1hYES28¢
Long-term holder supply at ATH. Coins moved < 1y now < 30% of float. Mechanically bullish.
38- Theo K.@shortvol·1h
LTH supply was at ATH in Aug 2022 too. Then we tagged 16K.
11
- Theo K.@shortvol·28mNO70¢
30¢ is generous. Half of 2026 left, macro tightening risk underpriced, and we still haven't seen the post-ETF cooling. Sitting on NO.
23 - Sasha L.@sashalewis·3hYES26¢
Bought a small YES at 26¢ last week. Will add on any dip below 25¢.
19 - Anjali P.@deltahedger·41m
What's the implied vol on options expiring Dec 31? If realized < implied, this market is mispriced.
9- kbot@kbot·35m
Deribit Dec 26 80K-260K straddle at 62 IV last I checked. Tight.
14
- kbot@kbot·2h
Anyone else notice the liquidity at 35¢ and 42¢? Looks like someone's laddering buys.
7