Will Brazil declare a public health emergency for Hantavirus by December 2026?
Details
About this market
As the World Health Organization monitors various viruses, concerns over Hantavirus have grown. This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the Brazilian government officially announces a public health emergency related to Hantavirus by December 31, 2026. Such an announcement would signal significant concern over the virus's potential impact within Brazil.
Resolution
Resolves: December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM
Ministério da Saúde do Brasil
▶Order book
▶Recent trades
News pulse
AIETF flows ran ~4× new BTC issuance in May with spot demand concentrated in the $98–110K band. Long-term holder supply hit a fresh all-time high, while macro tape stayed quiet — Fed kept its patient-on-cuts framing and Treasury yields drifted lower. Net read: bid is structural, but no near-term catalyst pulls price toward $200K without a vol expansion event.
Market sentiment
184 signals · 24h- Trade flow68 · 60%
- Posts58 · 20%
- News54 · 20%
Discussion8
- Maya R.✓@macroflow·14mYES30¢
ETF inflows ran 4× BTC issuance through May. Even if half of that pace holds into Q4, supply shock alone gets you north of 180K. 200K isn't a stretch — it's a floor.
47- Devin Q.@spotbias·9m
Flows trail price by ~2 weeks. We could absolutely round-trip the whole year.
12 - Maya R.@macroflow·6m
Sure, but the bid is structurally different now. RIAs aren't fast money.
18
- Lena S.@lenas·1h
Reminder to size positions. Don't go all-in on a binary that resolves in 7 months.
56 - Jordan T.@fadetheherd·55mYES32¢
Everyone in this thread is anchored to the spot price. The question is the right tail probability. Even a 50% chance of one parabolic month gets you there.
31 - Rui M.✓@ondechain·1hYES28¢
Long-term holder supply at ATH. Coins moved < 1y now < 30% of float. Mechanically bullish.
38- Theo K.@shortvol·1h
LTH supply was at ATH in Aug 2022 too. Then we tagged 16K.
11
- Theo K.@shortvol·28mNO70¢
30¢ is generous. Half of 2026 left, macro tightening risk underpriced, and we still haven't seen the post-ETF cooling. Sitting on NO.
23 - Sasha L.@sashalewis·3hYES26¢
Bought a small YES at 26¢ last week. Will add on any dip below 25¢.
19 - Anjali P.@deltahedger·41m
What's the implied vol on options expiring Dec 31? If realized < implied, this market is mispriced.
9- kbot@kbot·35m
Deribit Dec 26 80K-260K straddle at 62 IV last I checked. Tight.
14
- kbot@kbot·2h
Anyone else notice the liquidity at 35¢ and 42¢? Looks like someone's laddering buys.
7